Circle of Willis variation and outcome after intra-arterial treatment.

Background: Intra-arterial treatment (IAT) improves outcomes in acute ischaemic stroke. Presence of collaterals increases likelihood of good outcome. We investigated whether variations in the circle of Willis (CoW) and contributing carotid arteries influence outcome in patients who had a stroke treated with IAT. Methods: CT angiography data on patients who had an acute stroke treated with IAT were retrospectively collected. CoW was regarded complete if the contralateral A1 segment, anterior communicating artery and ipsilateral posterior communicating artery were fully developed, and the P1 segment was visible. Carotid artery contribution was studied with a self-developed carotid artery score ranging from 0 to 2 depending on the number of arteries supplying the occluded side of the CoW. Good clinical outcome was defined as modified Rankin Score ≤2 and measured at discharge and 3 months. We calculated risk ratios for the relation between completeness of the CoW, carotid score and good outcome, and performed a trend analysis for good outcome according to the carotid score. Results: 126 patients were included for analysis. Patients with a complete and incomplete CoW had a comparable risk for good outcome at discharge and 3 months. A higher carotid score was associated with a higher likelihood of good clinical outcome (p for trend 0.24 at discharge and 0.05 at 3 months). Conclusion: In patients with acute ischaemic stroke treated with IAT, chances of good clinical outcome tended to improve with number of carotid arteries supplying the cerebral circulation. Completeness of the CoW was not related to clinical outcome.

Is Blood Pressure Lowering in the Very Elderly With Previous Stroke Associated With a Higher Risk of Adverse Events?

Background We investigated whether blood pressure lowering for secondary prevention is associated with a reduction in recurrent stroke risk and/or a higher risk of adverse events in very elderly compared with younger trial participants. Methods and Results This is a random effects meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials of blood pressure lowering for secondary stroke prevention to evaluate age-stratified (<80, ≥80 years) risk of adverse events. Ovid-MEDLINE was searched for trials between 1970 and 2020. Summary-level data were acquired including outcomes of stroke, cardiovascular events, mortality, and adverse events. Seven trials were included comprising 38 596 participants, of whom 2336 (6.1%) were aged ≥80 years. There was an overall reduction in stroke risk in the intervention group compared with controls (risk ratio [RR], 0.90 [95% CI, 0.80, 0.98], I2=49%), and the magnitude of risk reduction did not differ by age subgroup (<80, ≥80 years). There was no increase in the risk of hypotensive symptoms in the intervention group for patients aged <80 years (RR, 1.19 [95% CI, 0.99], 1.44, I2=0%), but there was an increased risk in those ≥80 years (RR, 2.17 [95% CI, 1.22], 3.86, I2=0%). No increase was observed in the risk of falls, syncope, study withdrawal, or falls in either age subgroup. Conclusions Very elderly people in secondary prevention trials of blood pressure lowering have an increased risk of hypotensive symptoms, but with no statistical increase in the risk of falls, syncope, or mortality. However, evidence is lacking for frail elderly with multiple comorbidities who may be more vulnerable to adverse effects of blood pressure lowering.

Apixaban versus no anticoagulation after anticoagulation-associated intracerebral haemorrhage in patients with atrial fibrillation in the Netherlands (APACHE-AF): a randomised, open-label, phase 2 trial.

BACKGROUND: In patients with atrial fibrillation who survive an anticoagulation-associated intracerebral haemorrhage, a decision must be made as to whether restarting or permanently avoiding anticoagulation is the best long-term strategy to prevent recurrent stroke and other vascular events. In APACHE-AF, we aimed to estimate the rates of non-fatal stroke or vascular death in such patients when treated with apixaban compared with when anticoagulation was avoided, to inform the design of a larger trial. METHODS: APACHE-AF was a prospective, randomised, open-label, phase 2 trial with masked endpoint assessment, done at 16 hospitals in the Netherlands. Patients who survived intracerebral haemorrhage while treated with anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation were eligible for inclusion 7-90 days after the haemorrhage. Participants also had a CHA2DS2-VASc score of at least 2 and a score on the modified Rankin scale (mRS) of 4 or less. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive oral apixaban (5 mg twice daily or a reduced dose of 2·5 mg twice daily) or to avoid anticoagulation (oral antiplatelet agents could be prescribed at the discretion of the treating physician) by a central computerised randomisation system, stratified by the intention to start or withhold antiplatelet therapy in participants randomised to avoiding anticoagulation, and minimised for age and intracerebral haemorrhage location. The primary outcome was a composite of non-fatal stroke or vascular death, whichever came first, during a minimum follow-up of 6 months, analysed using Cox proportional hazards modelling in the intention-to-treat population. APACHE-AF is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02565693) and the Netherlands Trial Register (NL4395), and the trial is closed to enrolment at all participating sites. FINDINGS: Between Jan 15, 2015, and July 6, 2020, we recruited 101 patients (median age 78 years [IQR 73-83]; 55 [54%] were men and 46 [46%] were women; 100 [99%] were White and one [1%] was Black) a median of 46 days (IQR 21-74) after intracerebral haemorrhage. 50 were assigned to apixaban and 51 to avoid anticoagulation (of whom 26 [51%] started antiplatelet therapy). None were lost to follow-up. Over a median follow-up of 1·9 years (IQR 1·0-3·1; 222 person-years), non-fatal stroke or vascular death occurred in 13 (26%) participants allocated to apixaban (annual event rate 12·6% [95% CI 6·7-21·5]) and in 12 (24%) allocated to avoid anticoagulation (11·9% [95% CI 6·2-20·8]; adjusted hazard ratio 1·05 [95% CI 0·48-2·31]; p=0·90). Serious adverse events that were not outcome events occurred in 29 (58%) of 50 participants assigned to apixaban and 29 (57%) of 51 assigned to avoid anticoagulation. INTERPRETATION: Patients with atrial fibrillation who had an intracerebral haemorrhage while taking anticoagulants have a high subsequent annual risk of non-fatal stroke or vascular death, whether allocated to apixaban or to avoid anticoagulation. Our data underline the need for randomised controlled trials large enough to allow identification of subgroups in whom restarting anticoagulation might be either beneficial or hazardous. FUNDING: Dutch Heart Foundation (grant 2012T077).

Statistical reanalysis of vascular event outcomes in primary and secondary vascular prevention trials.

BACKGROUND: Vascular prevention trials typically use dichotomous event outcomes although this may be inefficient statistically and gives no indication of event severity. We assessed whether ordinal outcomes would be more efficient and how to best analyse them. METHODS: Chief investigators of vascular prevention randomised controlled trials that showed evidence of either benefit or harm, or were included in a systematic review that overall showed benefit or harm, shared individual participant data from their trials. Ordered categorical versions of vascular event outcomes (such as stroke and myocardial infarction) were analysed using 15 statistical techniques and their results then ranked, with the result with the smallest p-value given the smallest rank. Friedman and Duncan's multiple range tests were performed to assess differences between tests by comparing the average ranks for each statistical test. RESULTS: Data from 35 trials (254,223 participants) were shared with the collaboration. 13 trials had more than two treatment arms, resulting in 59 comparisons. Analysis approaches (Mann Whitney U, ordinal logistic regression, multiple regression, bootstrapping) that used ordinal outcome data had a smaller average rank and therefore appeared to be more efficient statistically than those that analysed the original binary outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Ordinal vascular outcome measures appear to be more efficient statistically than binary outcomes and provide information on the severity of event. We suggest a potential role for using ordinal outcomes in vascular prevention trials.

Balancing Benefits and Risks of Long-Term Antiplatelet Therapy in Noncardioembolic Transient Ischemic Attack or Stroke.

Background and Purpose: Lifelong treatment with antiplatelet drugs is recommended following a transient ischemic attack or ischemic stroke. Bleeding complications may offset the benefit of antiplatelet drugs in patients at increased risk of bleeding and low risk of recurrent ischemic events. We aimed to investigate the net benefit of antiplatelet treatment according to an individuals' bleeding risk. Methods: We pooled individual patient data from 6 randomized clinical trials (CAPRIE [Clopidogrel Versus Aspirin in Patients at Risk of Ischemic Events], ESPS-2 [European Stroke Prevention Study-2], MATCH [Management of Atherothrombosis With Clopidogrel in High-Risk Patients], CHARISMA [Clopidogrel for High Atherothrombotic Risk and Ischemic Stabilization, Management, and Avoidance], ESPRIT [European/Australasian Stroke Prevention in Reversible Ischemia Trial], and PRoFESS [Prevention Regimen for Effectively Avoiding Second Strokes]) investigating antiplatelet therapy in the subacute or chronic phase after noncardioembolic transient ischemic attack or stroke. Patients were stratified into quintiles according to their predicted risk of major bleeding with the S2TOP-BLEED score. The annual risk of major bleeding and recurrent ischemic events was assessed per quintile for 4 scenarios: (1) aspirin monotherapy, (2) aspirin-clopidogrel versus aspirin or clopidogrel monotherapy, (3) aspirin-dipyridamole versus clopidogrel, and (4) aspirin versus clopidogrel. Net benefit was calculated for the second, third, and fourth scenario. Results: Thirty seven thousand eighty-seven patients were included in the analyses. Both risk of major bleeding and recurrent ischemic events increased over quintiles of predicted bleeding risk, but risk of ischemic events was consistently higher (eg, from 0.7%/y (bottom quintile) to 3.2%/y (top quintile) for major bleeding on aspirin and from 2.5%/y to 10.2%/y for risk of ischemic events on aspirin). Treatment with aspirin-clopidogrel led to more major bleedings (0.9%­1.7% per year), than reduction in ischemic events (ranging from 0.4% to 0.9/1.0% per year) across all quintiles. There was no clear preference for either aspirin-dipyridamole or clopidogrel according to baseline bleeding risk. Conclusions: Among patients with a transient ischemic attack or ischemic stroke included in clinical trials of antiplatelet therapy, the risk of recurrent ischemic events and of major bleeding increase in parallel. Antiplatelet treatment cannot be individualized solely based on bleeding risk assessment.

Endovascular Therapy for Stroke Due to Basilar-Artery Occlusion.

BACKGROUND: The effectiveness of endovascular therapy in patients with stroke caused by basilar-artery occlusion has not been well studied. METHODS: We randomly assigned patients within 6 hours after the estimated time of onset of a stroke due to basilar-artery occlusion, in a 1:1 ratio, to receive endovascular therapy or standard medical care. The primary outcome was a favorable functional outcome, defined as a score of 0 to 3 on the modified Rankin scale (range, 0 to 6, with 0 indicating no disability, 3 indicating moderate disability, and 6 indicating death) at 90 days. The primary safety outcomes were symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage within 3 days after the initiation of treatment and mortality at 90 days. RESULTS: A total of 300 patients were enrolled (154 in the endovascular therapy group and 146 in the medical care group). Intravenous thrombolysis was used in 78.6% of the patients in the endovascular group and in 79.5% of those in the medical group. Endovascular treatment was initiated at a median of 4.4 hours after stroke onset. A favorable functional outcome occurred in 68 of 154 patients (44.2%) in the endovascular group and 55 of 146 patients (37.7%) in the medical care group (risk ratio, 1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.92 to 1.50). Symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage occurred in 4.5% of the patients after endovascular therapy and in 0.7% of those after medical therapy (risk ratio, 6.9; 95% CI, 0.9 to 53.0); mortality at 90 days was 38.3% and 43.2%, respectively (risk ratio, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.68 to 1.12). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with stroke from basilar-artery occlusion, endovascular therapy and medical therapy did not differ significantly with respect to a favorable functional outcome, but, as reflected by the wide confidence interval for the primary outcome, the results of this trial may not exclude a substantial benefit of endovascular therapy. Larger trials are needed to determine the efficacy and safety of endovascular therapy for basilar-artery occlusion. (Funded by the Dutch Heart Foundation and others; BASICS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01717755; Netherlands Trial Register number, NL2500.).

Editor's Choice - Risk of Stroke before Revascularisation in Patients with Symptomatic Carotid Stenosis: A Pooled Analysis of Randomised Controlled Trials.

OBJECTIVE: Current guidelines recommending rapid revascularisation of symptomatic carotid stenosis are largely based on data from clinical trials performed at a time when best medical therapy was potentially less effective than today. The risk of stroke and its predictors among patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis awaiting revascularisation in recent randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and in medical arms of earlier RCTs was assessed. METHODS: The pooled data of individual patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis randomised to stenting (CAS) or endarterectomy (CEA) in four recent RCTs, and of patients randomised to medical therapy in three earlier RCTs comparing CEA vs. medical therapy, were compared. The primary outcome event was any stroke occurring between randomisation and treatment by CAS or CEA, or within 120 days after randomisation. RESULTS: A total of 4 754 patients from recent trials and 1 227 from earlier trials were included. In recent trials, patients were randomised a median of 18 (IQR 7, 50) days after the qualifying event (QE). Twenty-three suffered a stroke while waiting for revascularisation (cumulative 120 day risk 1.97%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75 - 3.17). Shorter time from QE until randomisation increased stroke risk after randomisation (χ2 = 6.58, p = .011). Sixty-one patients had a stroke within 120 days of randomisation in the medical arms of earlier trials (cumulative risk 5%, 95% CI 3.8 - 6.2). Stroke risk was lower in recent than earlier trials when adjusted for time between QE and randomisation, age, severity of QE, and degree of carotid stenosis (HR 0.47, 95% CI 0.25 - 0.88, p = .019). CONCLUSION: Patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis enrolled in recent large RCTs had a lower risk of stroke after randomisation than historical controls. The added benefit of carotid revascularisation to modern medical care needs to be revisited in future studies. Until then, adhering to current recommendations for early revascularisation of patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis considered to require invasive treatment is advisable.

Development of imaging-based risk scores for prediction of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke in patients taking antithrombotic therapy after ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack: a pooled analysis of individual patient data from cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Balancing the risks of recurrent ischaemic stroke and intracranial haemorrhage is important for patients treated with antithrombotic therapy after ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack. However, existing predictive models offer insufficient performance, particularly for assessing the risk of intracranial haemorrhage. We aimed to develop new risk scores incorporating clinical variables and cerebral microbleeds, an MRI biomarker of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke risk. METHODS: We did a pooled analysis of individual-patient data from the Microbleeds International Collaborative Network (MICON), which includes 38 hospital-based prospective cohort studies from 18 countries. All studies recruited participants with previous ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack, acquired baseline MRI allowing quantification of cerebral microbleeds, and followed-up participants for ischaemic stroke and intracranial haemorrhage. Participants not taking antithrombotic drugs were excluded. We developed Cox regression models to predict the 5-year risks of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke, selecting candidate predictors on biological relevance and simplifying models using backward elimination. We derived integer risk scores for clinical use. We assessed model performance in internal validation, adjusted for optimism using bootstrapping. The study is registered on PROSPERO, CRD42016036602. FINDINGS: The included studies recruited participants between Aug 28, 2001, and Feb 4, 2018. 15 766 participants had follow-up for intracranial haemorrhage, and 15 784 for ischaemic stroke. Over a median follow-up of 2 years, 184 intracranial haemorrhages and 1048 ischaemic strokes were reported. The risk models we developed included cerebral microbleed burden and simple clinical variables. Optimism-adjusted c indices were 0·73 (95% CI 0·69-0·77) with a calibration slope of 0·94 (0·81-1·06) for the intracranial haemorrhage model and 0·63 (0·62-0·65) with a calibration slope of 0·97 (0·87-1·07) for the ischaemic stroke model. There was good agreement between predicted and observed risk for both models. INTERPRETATION: The MICON risk scores, incorporating clinical variables and cerebral microbleeds, offer predictive value for the long-term risks of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke in patients prescribed antithrombotic therapy for secondary stroke prevention; external validation is warranted. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation and Stroke Association.

Absence of Consistent Sex Differences in Outcomes From Symptomatic Carotid Endarterectomy and Stenting Randomized Trials.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: CREST (Carotid Revascularization Endarterectomy Versus Stenting Trial) reported a higher periprocedural risk for any stroke, death, or myocardial infarction for women randomized to carotid artery stenting (CAS) compared with women randomized to carotid endarterectomy (CEA). No difference in risk by treatment was detected for women relative to men in the 4-year primary outcome. We aimed to conduct a pooled analysis among symptomatic patients in large randomized trials to provide more precise estimates of sex differences in the CAS-to-CEA risk for any stroke or death during the 120-day periprocedural period and ipsilateral stroke thereafter. METHODS: Data from the Carotid Stenosis Trialists' Collaboration included outcomes from symptomatic patients in EVA-3S (Endarterectomy Versus Angioplasty in Patients With Symptomatic Severe Carotid Stenosis), SPACE (Stent-Protected Angioplasty Versus Carotid Endarterectomy in Symptomatic Patients), ICSS (International Carotid Stenting Study), and CREST. The primary outcome was any stroke or death within 120 days after randomization and ipsilateral stroke thereafter. Event rates and relative risks were estimated using Poisson regression; effect modification by sex was assessed with a sex-by-treatment-by-trial interaction term, with significant interaction defined a priori as P≤0.10. RESULTS: Over a median 2.7 years of follow-up, 433 outcomes occurred in 3317 men and 1437 women. The CAS-to-CEA relative risk of the primary outcome was significantly lower for women compared with men in 1 trial, nominally lower in another, and nominally higher in the other two. The sex-by-treatment-by-trial interaction term was significant (P=0.065), indicating heterogeneity among trials. Contributors to this heterogeneity are primarily differences in periprocedural period. When the trials are nevertheless pooled, there were no significant sex differences in risk in any follow-up period. CONCLUSIONS: There were significant differences between trials in the magnitude of sex differences in treatment effect (CAS-to-CEA relative risk), indicating pooling data from these trials to estimate sex differences might not be valid. Whether sex is acting as an effect modifier of the CAS-to-CEA treatment effect in symptomatic patients remains uncertain. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT00190398 (EVA-3S) and NCT00004732 (CREST). URL: https://www.isrctn.com; Unique identifier: ISRCTN57874028 (SPACE) and ISRCTN25337470 (ICSS).

Surgical Decompression for Space-Occupying Hemispheric Infarction: A Systematic Review and Individual Patient Meta-analysis of Randomized Clinical Trials.

Importance: In patients with space-occupying hemispheric infarction, surgical decompression reduces the risk of death and increases the chance of a favorable outcome. Uncertainties, however, still remain about the benefit of this treatment for specific patient groups. Objective: To assess whether surgical decompression for space-occupying hemispheric infarction is associated with a reduced risk of death and an increased chance of favorable outcomes, as well as whether this association is modified by patient characteristics. Data Sources: MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and the Stroke Trials Registry were searched from database inception to October 9, 2019, for English-language articles that reported on the results of randomized clinical trials of surgical decompression vs conservative treatment in patients with space-occupying hemispheric infarction. Study Selection: Published and unpublished randomized clinical trials comparing surgical decompression with medical treatment alone were selected. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Patient-level data were extracted from the trial databases according to a predefined protocol and statistical analysis plan. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) reporting guideline and the Cochrane Collaboration's tool for assessing risk of bias were used. One-stage, mixed-effect logistic regression modeling was used for all analyses. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was a favorable outcome (modified Rankin Scale [mRS] score ≤3) at 1 year after stroke. Secondary outcomes included death, reasonable (mRS score ≤4) and excellent (mRS score ≤2) outcomes at 6 months and 1 year, and an ordinal shift analysis across all levels of the mRS. Variables for subgroup analyses were age, sex, presence of aphasia, stroke severity, time to randomization, and involved vascular territories. Results: Data from 488 patients from 7 trials from 6 countries were available for analysis. The risk of bias was considered low to moderate for 6 studies. Surgical decompression was associated with a decreased chance of death (adjusted odds ratio, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.10-0.24) and increased chance of a favorable outcome (adjusted odds ratio, 2.95; 95% CI, 1.55-5.60), without evidence of heterogeneity of treatment effect across any of the prespecified subgroups. Too few patients were treated later than 48 hours after stroke onset to allow reliable conclusions in this subgroup, and the reported proportions of elderly patients reaching a favorable outcome differed considerably among studies. Conclusions and Relevance: The results suggest that the benefit of surgical decompression for space-occupying hemispheric infarction is consistent across a wide range of patients. The benefit of surgery after day 2 and in elderly patients remains uncertain.

Delayed Cerebral Ischemia After Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage in Patients With a History of Migraine.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI) is a major contributor to the high morbidity in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). Spreading depolarizations may play a role in DCI pathophysiology. Because patients with migraine are probably more susceptible to spreading depolarizations, we investigated whether patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage with migraine are at increased risk for DCI. METHODS: We included patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage from 3 hospitals in the Netherlands. We assessed lifetime migraine history with a short screener. DCI was defined as neurological deterioration lasting >1 hour not attributable to other causes by diagnostic work-up. Adjustments were made for possible confounders in multivariable Cox regression analyses and adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) were calculated. We assessed the interaction effects of age and sex. RESULTS: We included 582 patients (mean age 57 years, 71% women) mostly with mild to moderate aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage of whom 108 (19%) had a history of migraine (57 with aura). Patients with migraine were not at increased risk of developing DCI compared with patients without migraine (22% versus 24%, aHR, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.56-1.43]). Additionally, no increased risk was found in patients with migraine with possible aura (aHR, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.39-1.43]), in women (aHR, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.53-1.45], Pinteraction=0.859), or in young patients aged <50 years (aHR, 1.59 [95% CI, 0.72-3.49]), although numbers in these subgroups were limited. We found an interaction between migraine and age with an increased risk of DCI among young patients with migraine (Pinteraction=0.075). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with migraine are in general not at increased risk of DCI. Future studies should focus in particular on young SAH patients, in whom there might be an association between migraine history and development of DCI.

Refining prediction of major bleeding on antiplatelet treatment after transient ischaemic attack or ischaemic stroke.

INTRODUCTION: Bleeding is the main safety concern of treatment with antiplatelet drugs. We aimed to refine prediction of major bleeding on antiplatelet treatment after a transient ischaemic attack (TIA) or stroke by assessing the added value of new predictors to the existing S2TOP-BLEED score. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We used Cox regression analysis to study the association between candidate predictors and major bleeding among 2072 patients with a transient ischaemic attack or ischaemic stroke included in a population-based study (Oxford Vascular Study - OXVASC). An updated model was proposed and validated in 1094 patients with a myocardial infarction included in OXVASC. Models were compared with c-statistics, calibration plots, and net reclassification improvement. RESULTS: Independent predictors for major bleeding on top of S2TOP-BLEED variables were peptic ulcer (hazard ratio (HR): 1.72; 1.04-2.86), cancer (HR: 2.40; 1.57-3.68), anaemia (HR: 1.55; 0.99-2.44) and renal failure (HR: 2.20; 1.57-4.28). Addition of those variables improved discrimination from 0.69 (0.64-0.73) to 0.73 (0.69-0.78) in the TIA/stroke cohort (p = 0.01). Performance improved particularly for upper gastro-intestinal bleeds (0.70; 0.64-0.75 to 0.77; 0.72-0.82). Net reclassification improved over the entire range of the score (net reclassification improvement: 0.56; 0.36-0.76). In the validation cohort, discriminatory performance improved from 0.68 (0.62-0.74) to 0.70 (0.64-0.76). DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Peptic ulcer, cancer, anaemia and renal failure improve predictive performance of the S2TOP-BLEED score for major bleeding after stroke. Future external validation studies will be required to confirm the value of the STOP-BLEED+ score in transient ischaemic attack/stroke patients.

Cost-benefit of outcome adjudication in nine randomised stroke trials.

BACKGROUND: Central adjudication of outcomes is common for randomised trials and should control for differential misclassification. However, few studies have estimated the cost of the adjudication process. METHODS: We estimated the cost of adjudicating the primary outcome in nine randomised stroke trials (25,436 participants). The costs included adjudicators' time, direct payments to adjudicators, and co-ordinating centre costs (e.g. uploading cranial scans and general set-up costs). The number of events corrected after adjudication was our measure of benefit. We calculated cost per corrected event for each trial and in total. RESULTS: The primary outcome in all nine trials was either stroke or a composite that included stroke. In total, the adjudication process associated with this primary outcome cost in excess of £100,000 for a third of the trials (3/9). Mean cost per event corrected by adjudication was £2295.10 (SD: £1482.42). CONCLUSIONS: Central adjudication is a time-consuming and potentially costly process. These costs need to be considered when designing a trial and should be evaluated alongside the potential benefits adjudication brings to determine whether they outweigh this expense.

Location-specific risk factors for intracerebral hemorrhage: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies reporting on risk factors according to location of the intracerebral hemorrhage. METHODS: We searched PubMed and Embase for cohort and case-control studies reporting ≥100 patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage that specified the location of the hematoma and reported associations with risk factors published until June 27, 2019. Two authors independently extracted data on risk factors. Estimates were pooled with the generic variance-based random-effects method. RESULTS: After screening 10,013 articles, we included 42 studies totaling 26,174 patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (9,141 lobar and 17,033 nonlobar). Risk factors for nonlobar intracerebral hemorrhage were hypertension (risk ratio [RR] 4.25, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.05-5.91, I 2 = 92%), diabetes mellitus (RR 1.35, 95% CI 1.11-1.64, I 2 = 37%), male sex (RR 1.63, 95% CI 1.25-2.14, I 2 = 61%), alcohol overuse (RR 1.48, 95% CI 1.21-1.81, I 2 = 19%), underweight (RR 2.12, 95% CI 1.12-4.01, I 2 = 31%), and being a Black (RR 2.83, 95% CI 1.02-7.84, I 2 = 96%) or Hispanic (RR 2.95, 95% CI 1.69-5.14, I 2 = 71%) participant compared with being a White participant. Hypertension, but not any of the other risk factors, was also a risk factor for lobar intracerebral hemorrhage (RR 1.83, 95% CI 1.39-2.42, I 2 = 76%). Smoking, hypercholesterolemia, and obesity were associated with neither nonlobar nor lobar intracerebral hemorrhage. CONCLUSIONS: Hypertension is a risk factor for both nonlobar and lobar intracerebral hemorrhage, although with double the effect for nonlobar intracerebral hemorrhage. Diabetes mellitus, male sex, alcohol overuse, underweight, and being a Black or Hispanic person are risk factors for nonlobar intracerebral hemorrhage only. Hence, the term hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage for nonlobar intracerebral hemorrhage is not appropriate.

Confounding adjustment performance of ordinal analysis methods in stroke studies.

BACKGROUND: In stroke studies, ordinal logistic regression (OLR) is often used to analyze outcome on the modified Rankin Scale (mRS), whereas the non-parametric Mann-Whitney measure of superiority (MWS) has also been suggested. It is unclear how these perform comparatively when confounding adjustment is warranted. AIMS: Our aim is to quantify the performance of OLR and MWS in different confounding variable settings. METHODS: We set up a simulation study with three different scenarios; (1) dichotomous confounding variables, (2) continuous confounding variables, and (3) confounding variable settings mimicking a study on functional outcome after stroke. We compared adjusted ordinal logistic regression (aOLR) and stratified Mann-Whitney measure of superiority (sMWS), and also used propensity scores to stratify the MWS (psMWS). For comparability, OLR estimates were transformed to a MWS. We report bias, the percentage of runs that produced a point estimate deviating by more than 0.05 points (point estimate variation), and the coverage probability. RESULTS: In scenario 1, there was no bias in both sMWS and aOLR, with similar point estimate variation and coverage probabilities. In scenario 2, sMWS resulted in more bias (0.04 versus 0.00), and higher point estimate variation (41.6% versus 3.3%), whereas coverage probabilities were similar. In scenario 3, there was no bias in both methods, point estimate variation was higher in the sMWS (6.7%) versus aOLR (1.1%), and coverage probabilities were 0.98 (sMWS) versus 0.95 (aOLR). With psMWS, bias remained 0.00, with less point estimate variation (1.5%) and a coverage probability of 0.95. CONCLUSIONS: The bias of both adjustment methods was similar in our stroke simulation scenario, and the higher point estimate variation in the MWS improved with propensity score based stratification. The stratified MWS is a valid alternative for adjusted OLR only when the ratio of number of strata versus number of observations is relatively low, but propensity score based stratification extends the application range of the MWS.

Distribution of Cardioembolic Stroke: A Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: A cardiac origin in ischemic stroke is more frequent than previously assumed, but it is not clear which patients benefit from cardiac work-up if obvious cardiac pathology is absent. We hypothesized that thromboembolic stroke with a cardiac source occurs more frequently in the posterior circulation compared with thromboembolic stroke of another etiology. METHODS: We performed a multicenter observational study in 3,311 consecutive patients with ischemic stroke who were enrolled in an ongoing prospective stroke registry of 8 University hospitals between September 2009 and November 2014 in The Netherlands. In this initiative, the so-called Parelsnoer Institute-Cerebrovascular Accident Study Group, clinical data, imaging, and biomaterials of patients with stroke are prospectively and uniformly collected. We compared the proportions of posterior stroke location in patients with a cardiac stroke source with those with another stroke etiology and calculated risk ratios (RR) with corresponding 95% CI with Poisson regression analyses. To assess which patient or disease characteristics were most strongly associated with a cardiac etiology in patients with ischemic stroke, we performed a stepwise backward regression analysis. RESULTS: For the primary aim, 1,428 patients were eligible for analyses. The proportion of patients with a posterior stroke location among patients with a cardiac origin of their stroke (28%) did not differ statistically significant to those with another origin (25%), age and sex adjusted RR 1.16; 95% CI 0.96-1.41. For the secondary aim, 1,955 patients were eligible for analyses. No recent history of smoking, no hyperlipidemia, coronary artery disease, a higher age, and a higher National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score were associated with a cardiac etiology of ischemic stroke. CONCLUSIONS: We could not confirm our hypothesis that thromboembolic stroke localized in the posterior circulation is associated with a cardioembolic source of ischemic stroke, and therefore posterior stroke localization on itself does not necessitate additional cardiac examination. The lack of determinants of atherosclerosis, for example, no recent history of smoking and no hyperlipidemia, coronary artery disease, a higher age, and a higher NIHSS score are stronger risk factors for a cardiac source of ischemic stroke.

A support programme for secondary prevention in patients with transient ischaemic attack and minor stroke (INSPiRE-TMS): an open-label, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Patients with recent stroke or transient ischaemic attack are at high risk for a further vascular event, possibly leading to permanent disability or death. Although evidence-based treatments for secondary prevention are available, many patients do not achieve recommended behavioural modifications and pharmaceutical prevention targets in the long-term. We aimed to investigate whether a support programme for enhanced secondary prevention can reduce the frequency of recurrent vascular events. METHODS: INSPiRE-TMS was an open-label, multicentre, international randomised controlled trial done at seven German hospitals with acute stroke units and a Danish stroke centre. Patients with non-disabling stroke or transient ischaemic attack within 2 weeks from study enrolment and at least one modifiable risk factor (ie, arterial hypertension, diabetes, atrial fibrillation, or smoking) were included. Computerised randomisation was used to allocate patients (1:1) either to the support programme in addition to conventional care or to conventional care alone. The support programme used feedback and motivational interviewing strategies with eight outpatient visits over 2 years aiming to improve adherence to secondary prevention targets. The primary outcome was the composite of major vascular events consisting of stroke, acute coronary syndrome, and vascular death, assessed in the intention-to-treat population (all patients who underwent randomisation, did not withdraw study participation, and had at least one follow-up). Outcomes were assessed at annual follow-ups using time-to-first-event analysis. All-cause death was monitored as a safety outcome. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01586702. FINDINGS: From Aug 22, 2011, to Oct 30, 2017, we enrolled 2098 patients. Of those, 1048 (50·0%) were randomly assigned to the support programme group and 1050 (50·0%) patients were assigned to the conventional care group. 1030 (98·3%) patients in the support group and 1042 (99·2%) patients in the conventional care group were included in the intention-to-treat analysis. The mean age of analysed participants was 67·4 years and 700 (34%) were women. After a mean follow-up of 3·6 years, the primary outcome of major vascular events had occurred in 163 (15·8%) of 1030 patients of the support programme group and in 175 (16·8%) of 1042 patients of the conventional care group (hazard ratio [HR] 0·92, 95% CI 0·75-1·14). Total major vascular event numbers were 209 for the support programme group and 225 for the conventional care group (incidence rate ratio 0·93, 95% CI 0·77-1·12; p=0·46) and all-cause death occurred in 73 (7·1%) patients in the support programme group and 85 (8·2%) patients in the conventional care group (HR 0·85, 0·62-1·17). More patients in the support programme group achieved secondary prevention targets (eg, in 1-year-follow-up 52% vs 42% [p<0·0001] for blood pressure, 62% vs 54% [p=0·0010] for LDL, 33% vs 19% [p<0·0001] for physical activity, and 51% vs 34% [p=0·0010] for smoking cessation). INTERPRETATION: Provision of an intensified secondary prevention programme in patients with non-disabling stroke or transient ischaemic attack was associated with improved achievement of secondary prevention targets but did not lead to a significantly lower rate of major vascular events. Further research is needed to investigate the effects of support programmes in selected patients who do not achieve secondary prevention targets soon after discharge. FUNDING: German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, Pfizer, and German Stroke Foundation.